Model Lesson -- Probability

Instructions

Dear fellow educators, this is a model lesson on the topic of Probability. By participating in the activities of this model lesson, you will get a first-hand experience of what the students have to go through in our "Participatory Learning" lessons and also understand our lesson design better.

1. Please read the brief explanation (with examples) below on what Probability is.
2. After which, please attempt the exploratory activities to get a better understanding of the topic and create for yourself a more authentic learning experience.
3. At the end, there is a discussion problem on the topic to assess your individual understanding of the topic.
4. After attempting the discussion problem on your own, please post your answer (with explanation) and reply to other participants' answers in the comment system at the bottom of the page. Through the discussion, you should be able to clarify whatever misconception that you may have on the topic with the other participants.

Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event happening.

Probability of event, \(E\):
\(P\left( E \right) = \frac{{n\left( E \right)}}{{n\left( S \right)}}\), $$\begin{align} where &n\left( E \right) = {\rm{Number\; of\; favourable\; outcomes}}, \\ and &n\left( S \right) = {\rm{Number\; of\; all\; possible\; outcomes}}. \\ \end{align}$$ Note : \(0 \le P\left( E \right) \le 1\)

Examples

• Let \(A\) represent the event of getting a "Head" from throwing a fair coin.
\[P\left( A \right) = \frac{1}{2}\]
• Let \(B\) represent the event of getting a "\(1\)" from throwing a fair 6-sided die.
\[P\left( B \right) = \frac{1}{6}\]
• Let \(C\) represent the event of getting a value less than "\(5\)" from throwing a fair 6-sided die.
\[P\left( C \right) = \frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3}\]
• Let \(D\) represent the event of getting a card of spade (♠) from a fair pack of playing cards (jokers not included).
\[P\left( D \right) = \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}\]
• Let \(E\) represent the event of getting a picture card from a fair pack of playing cards (jokers not included).
\[P\left( E \right) = \frac{12}{52} = \frac{3}{13}\]

Exploratory Activities

1. Coin Flipping :
2. Dice Throwing :

Pre-Discussion Activity : Let's examine how a 6-chamber revolver works.

Discussion Problem

Consider the following probability problem and submit your choice before proceeding to the comment section below (bottom of page) for discussion. After you have submitted your choice to the above problem, please post your choice with explanation in the comment section below (bottom of the page). Please also "reply" to at least 2 other comments.

Let's have a fruitful discussion. Thanks.